According to sources in Washington and Seoul, former USFK Commander James Thurman and his predecessor Walter Sharp have been considered as candidates to fill the ambassadorship that has been vacant for more than a year.

In light of US President Donald Trump’s preference for military officers in civilian posts, the move could signal that Trump may resume his tough stance if his meeting with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un ends without significant results on denuclearization, analysts say.

“It could be seen as a sign that Washington is trying to come up with a plan B for North Korea,” said Kim Dae-young, research fellow at Korea Research Institute for National Strategy, Seoul-based security research institute.

Former USFK Commander James Thurman. Yonhap

Sharp, who served from 2008 to 2011, and Thurman, who served from 2011 to 2013, were in South Korea at a time when Pyongyang staged multiple cross-border military provocations that killed 50 South Korean soldiers and civilians.

The deadly provocations include the sinking of a South Korean naval vessel in March 2010 and the shelling of the island of Yeonpyeongdo in October 2010 both of which occurred when Sharp was in uniform.

During Thurman‘s watch, from 2011 to 2013, North Korea conducted missile launches and underground nuclear tests. Months before Thurman’s retirement in October, the North threated to terminate the armistice agreement that brought an end to the Korean War with a cease-fire, not a peace treaty.

“Of all the USFK commanders, I think Thurman is the most warrior-like commander,” said a source who was in the military when Thurman was commander. “He understands South Korea very well, and the importance of the allies.”

During an interview with Newsweek magazine in December, Thurman said that the need for a US ambassador was “very critical” to US forces in South Korea, describing the ambassador as the first person he would call in the event of an emergency.

The speculation over Thurman’s ambassadorship has emerged since the retired US Army general served as a member of US Vice President Mike Pence’s delegation to the opening ceremony of the PyeongChang Winter Olympics in early February.

Debate over the Trump administration’s “bloody nose” strategy had roiled both Seoul and Washington. Inside the USFK, speculation was rampant that Washington was serious about conducting a limited military strike on North Korea.

South Korea’s government has opposed the idea of bringing another catastrophic war to the Korean Peninsula. Security analysts in Washington echoed the concern that there would be no guarantee of eliminating the entire nuclear arsenal in the North without escalation into a major war.

Among those critics were former George W. Bush administration official Victor Cha, Washington’s original choice for the next US ambassador in Seoul until the Trump administration dropped his nomination due to their differences on “policy views.”

By Yeo Jun-suk(jasonyeo@heraldcorp.com)

Former USFK commander Walter Sharp. (US Department of Defense)

“There are talks in the diplomatic sphere that someone with a military background may fill the position,” Shin Beom-chul, a professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, told The Korea Herald.

The post — which has been vacant for over a year — is currently held in the interim by charge d’affaires Marc Knapper.

Mark Lippert, the previous ambassador and a political appointee of President Barack Obama vacated the post when US President Donald Trump took office in January 2017.

Shin said the diplomatic circle here is talking about several candidates, including retired US and UN Korea Forces Commander Gen. Walter Sharp. There is a high possibility that a hard-liner with a hawkish stance may set foot in Seoul to stand on the same page with the Trump administration, according to Shin.

Sharp, who is the head of the Korea Defense Veterans Association, served as commander of the USFK from 2008 to 2011. He is a known hard-liner when dealing with North Korea’s nuclear and humanitarian issues and has been vocal about such subjects for years.

Sharp was also mentioned as a strong candidate, alongside Victor Cha, a former director for Asian affairs for the National Security Council under the George W. Bush administration, when buzz over the appointment of the next US envoy to Seoul was building up after Trump’s inauguration.

Cha was largely expected to become the next US ambassador to South Korea, but his appointment was withdrawn in late January reportedly due to his views on a possible preventative strike against North Korea’s nuclear facilities. His concerns about military action put him at odds with the Trump administration, several media reports claimed.

A US-based expert also said that an official with a military background could be tapped to highlight Washington’s current stance on North Korea issues.

“But to give you a sense of the two views out there, one is that a US senior military official could be a good fit given the sense of elevated security and a way to send a message to North Korea on the seriousness of the US’ commitment to the situation,” John Park, director of the Korea Working Group at the Harvard Kennedy School, said in a lecture hosted by the Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies in Seoul last week.

On the other hand, the envoy may not necessarily be a military or Korea expert, said Park.

“Another opinion or rumor is a business person or someone who is close politically to President Trump, but not necessarily someone who understands the local dynamics here or the complexity of the situation,” he added.

Knapper, who has been “dutifully” delivering Washington’s messages to South Korea for more than a year now as the acting US ambassador, is another likely candidate, said Shin.

Regarding the timeframe of the appointment, experts say that the position is likely to remain vacant for “a while” despite Seoul’s efforts to bring North Korea to the US-North dialogue table for denuclearization. The grueling process of naming a nominee, a thorough background check and confirmation are expected to further delay the nomination, they say.

By Jung Min-kyung (mkjung@heraldcorp.com)