The meeting between President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is scheduled for April 27. Kim’s meeting with US President Donald Trump is set for May.

With the critical meetings looming closer, Seoul’s inter-Korean summit preparation committee convenes for the fourth time Thursday, when the two Koreas are set to hold a working-level meeting for the summit.

President Moon Jae-in and US President Donald Trump. Yonhap

According to Cheong Wa Dae, Seoul has been in close communication with Washington with regards to the two summits.

In seeking improved inter-Korean ties and a resolution to the North Korean nuclear issue, Seoul has taken on the role of mediator between Pyongyang and Washington.

“The bigger issue at hand is North Korea-US (talks). As the North Korean and US leaders will discuss the core issues of denuclearization and (the North Korean regime’s) guarantee of safety, (the matter) is different from the Sept. 19 Declaration,” a high-level Cheong Wa Dae official said on the condition of anonymity. The Sept. 19 Declaration refers to North Korea agreeing to give up nuclear armament programs during the six-party talks in 2005.

“(Seoul) is exchanging information with the US, and we are sharing our experience and information necessary for North Korea-US dialogue.”

The official also revealed that Seoul is in talks with Beijing and Tokyo to arrange a trilateral summit, and that the results of the inter-Korean summit would be the “core agenda” of the three-way meeting.

Regarding the agenda of the inter-Korean summit, South Korea’s Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha said that the consensus in Seoul is that a flexible approach is needed to enable Moon and Kim to have a “candid and inclusive” dialogue. S

She said that denuclearization, inter-Korean relations and establishing peace will be the main agenda items of the summit.

On the subject of North Korea’s human rights violations, Kang hinted that the matter is unlikely to be discussed at the summit.

“Dialogue must follow the agenda the two sides agreed on, so including the matter in inter-Korean talks will require more preparations by the government,” Kang said at a press conference Wednesday.

Kang, however, emphasized that Seoul has a “firm stance” on North Korea’s human rights situation, and that the government is dedicated to working with the international community to improve conditions in the North.
North Korea, meanwhile, is engaging South Korea and the US in so-called 1.5-track meetings, while reaching out to its traditional allies.

Last month, Kim made his first overseas trip as the leader of North Korea, meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. He has also dispatched his top diplomats on a series of overseas missions in recent weeks.

North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho on Tuesday met with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, on his way to attend a conference of the Non-Aligned Movement in Azerbaijan. From there, Ri will head to Moscow.

Ri’s meeting with Wang came less than three weeks after his meeting with Swedish Foreign Minister Margot Wallstrom. In addition, Choe Kang-il, deputy director-general for North American affairs at North Korea’s Foreign Ministry, was dispatched last month to Finland, where he met with South Korean and US representatives.

According to Chinese media reports, Ri and Wang discussed Beijing-Pyongyang relations and matters concerning denuclearization.

Following the meeting, the state-run China Central Television reported that Wang informed Ri that the leaders of the two countries had reached a consensus on denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula at their earlier meeting.

Xi and Kim met in Beijing on March 26. According to North Korea, Xi had invited Kim on an unofficial visit, following a request from Pyongyang.

The broadcaster also reported that Wang conveyed China’s support for the inter-Korean and US-North Korea summits, and praised Pyongyang’s efforts at easing tensions on the peninsula.

The broadcaster also said that Ri called for strategic communication between the two countries regarding the Korean Peninsula.

The sudden flurry of diplomatic activities by North Korea has sparked speculations of a Moscow-Pyongyang summit. Moscow, however, has denied that such a meeting is imminent,

It has also been rumored that Ri is set to visit South Korea soon after his return from Moscow. Seoul’s presidential office declined to comment on the matter.

By Choi He-suk (cheesuk@heraldcorp.com)

John Mearsheimer, a professor at the University of Chicago, said there is a chance that the Trump-Kim summit may not materialize, or if the talks fail, the two counties could return to the level of animosity of last year.

“It’s not clear whether they will meet … there is hardly any preparations for the meeting and there is a good chance they won’t meet,” Mearsheimer said during a lecture hosted by the Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies on Wednesday.

“The great danger there is that if the summit happens between Kim Jong-un and Trump and it fails, then you could end up in a situation where relations between the US and North Korea are worse after the failed summit than they have been over the past years.”

(Herald DB)

Tension on the Korean Peninsula had escalated last year, with Trump and Kim exchanging war-like rhetoric with each other. Trump threatened to attack North Korea with “fire and fury,” prompting Kim to call Trump a “mentally deranged dotard.”

The bellicose mood shifted this year when Kim made a diplomatic overture by inviting South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in and Trump for summits. Kim even expressed willingness to bring denuclearization to the negotiation table.

But Mearsheimer said there are no incentives for the nuclear-armed North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons, saying the North is in a “completely different” situation from countries that abandoned their nuclear weapons when the Cold War ended in the 1990s.

“I can’t think of a country that needs nuclear weapons more than North Korea because you all know that the US is into a regime change,” the scholar said, referring to previous debates over military strikes on North Korea within the Trump’s administration.

“From their point of view, it will make eminently good sense. We don’t see any evidence that the US, which has the most powerful conventional forces in the world, is giving up their nuclear weapons. So why would you expect North Korea to do so?”

Regarding President Moon’s engagement policy with North Korea, Mearsheimer said it is helpful in reducing inter-Korean tensions for now, but its longer-term implications remain to be seen, as the prospects of the summits with North Korea look bleak.

John Mearsheimer, a professor at the University of Chicago. (Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies­)

“I think it is very smart policy. He did everything possible to tamp down the tension and get the US and North Korea to walk away from the cliff. I think President Moon did the right thing and pushed us in that direction.”

“How it plays out in the long term? It’s very hard to say. It’s not clear if there will be a happy ending to the summit. I think it’s more likely there will be an unhappy ending. … For the time being, I think it is good to walk away from the crisis.”

Mearsheimer has long asserted that the US and China would end up in a “security competition” that could end in major conflicts and that Washington should contain the rise of China by building a “balancing coalition.”

In his perspective, the security landscape surrounding East Asia is much more precarious than during the Cold War, and the likelihood of war between the US and China is higher than between the US and the Soviet Union.

But the scholar predicted such a scenario would not be fulfilled in the foreseeable future, as China wants to avoid conflicts — particularly those with the US and its allies — until it becomes powerful enough to compete with Washington.

“The Chinese are fully aware that provoking the US is not a good idea. … I think the Chinese understand that time is on their side (and) now is not the time to provoke the crisis,” he said.

By Yeo Jun-suk (jasonyeo@heraldcorp.com)

According to Seoul’s presidential office, Moon and Trump spoke over the telephone for about 35 minutes from around 10 p.m., discussing issues surrounding North Korea, and Seoul-Washington relations.

President Moon Jae-in (left) and US President Donald Trump. Yonhap

“Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is the most important objective in achieving peace not on the peninsula but in the world,” Moon was quoted as saying by his chief press secretary Yoon Young-chan.

“Concessions on (denuclearization) cannot be made under any circumstances, and that is our adamant position.”

According to Yoon, Moon also touched on the issue of Washington’s trade policies, saying that the strength of the alliance should be made visible, hinting at Seoul’s desires to see Washington easing its protectionist measures.

Yoon also revealed that Moon briefed Trump on the results of his national security officers’ visits to China, Russia and Japan, and said that these countries fully support US-North Korea talks. Yoon added that the two leaders agreed to maintain close cooperation “in every step to enable North Korea to take action towards denuclearization.”

Seoul’s National Security Office chief Chung Eui-yong, and National Intelligence Service Director Suh Hoon had traveled to China, Russian and Japan to rally support for inter-Korean and US-North Korea talks.

By Choi He-suk (cheesuk@heraldcorp.com)

South Korea’s national security adviser, Chung Eui-yong, told reporters at the White House on Frinday morning (Korean time) that Trump told him he would accept Kim’s invitation to meet with him as soon as possible.

The announcement is expected to greatly change the security condition on the Korean Peninsula gripped by a year of tensions over North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, left, and US President Donald Trump (AP)

Chung, along with National Intelligence Service Director Suh Hoon, traveled to Washington the previous day to discuss the results of their recent trip to Pyongyang.

During their North Korean trip, the South Korean officials met with North Korean leader Kim, and announced a series of inter-Korean agreements.

The key agreement stated that the two Koreas will hold a summit at the end of April, the North will cease missile and nuclear tests for the time being, and that Kim is willing to talk to the US.

Seoul has already publicized that North Korea offered talks with the United States on denuclearization and normalizing ties, a potential diplomatic opening after a year of escalating tensions over the North’s nuclear and missile tests. The rival Koreas also agreed to hold a leadership summit in late April.

(AP)

Top Trump administration officials got a chance to hear firsthand from South Korean national security director Chung, who led the delegation that went to Pyongyang and met Kim on Monday.

Chung told reporters on Tuesday that he received a message from North Korea intended for the United States, but didn’t disclose what it was. According to Chung, the North also agreed to suspend nuclear and missile tests during such future talks — a longstanding US demand.

On Tuesday, Trump had expressed both hope and skepticism about the reported offer of talks, which has yet to be confirmed, at least publicly, by the isolated North Korean government. While the path to a diplomatic resolution over the North’s nuclear arsenal would be long and difficult, talks could dampen fears of war breaking out over what represents an emerging threat to the US mainland.

US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said Thursday in Ethiopia that the US has seen “potentially positive signals” from North Korea, but the adversaries are still a long way from holding negotiations.

By Choi He-suk (cheesuk@heraldcorp.com) and news reports

South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in plans to meet Kim on the South’s side of the Panmunjeom truce village as part of the recently reached inter-Korean agreement.

The announcement regarding Trump’s decision was made by Seoul’s National Security Office chief Chung Eui-yong at the White House following his meeting with Trump and his top aides.

“President Trump appreciated the briefing and said he would meet Kim Jong-un by May to achieve permanent denuclearization,” Chung said.

South Korean National Security Office chief Chung Eui-yong talks with US President Donald Trump at the White House on Thursday (US local time). (Yonhap)

Chung had met with Trump, Vice President Mike Pence, as well as Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis and National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster, to explain the results of his meeting with Kim on Monday.

Chung said that he briefed Trump on Kim’s promises, including that he is “committed to denuclearization.” Chung also said that the North Korean leader “expressed his eagerness to meet President Trump as soon as possible.”

Moon welcomed the developments.

“(The process of achieving) A complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula will be on track if a meeting between the two leaders (Kim and Trump) follows the inter-Korean summit,” Moon said.

“The May meeting will be recorded as a historic milestone in achieving peace on the Korean Peninsula.”

Moon also thanked Kim and Trump for their decision, going on to praise the US leader saying that his “leadership will be praised by South and North Koreans, and people of the world who wish for peace.”

(Yonhap)

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe welcomed the developments, but advised caution and said that pressure will remain until visible steps towards denuclearization are made.

Speaking to reporters on Friday, Abe said that he “appreciates this change,“ referring to the North’s apparently willingness to discuss denuclearization with the US.

He added that the development is the result of the international community‘s continuation of high-level pressure.”

According to Cheong Wa Dae spokesman Kim Eui-kyeom, Chung’s meeting with Trump was initially planned for Saturday, Korea time, but was brought forward at the US leader’s request.

At the meeting Chung quoted Kim Jong-un as saying “significant results could be achieved if (I) speak to President Trump in person,” the Cheong Wa Dae spokesman said. According to Kim Eui-kyeom, Trump immediately accepted the invitation to meet, and stressed that he has always emphasized the need for dialogue.

The spokesman also revealed that Chung did not deliver a letter from the North Korean leader, and that there has been no talk of special envoys between Pyongyang and Washington.

Moon, meanwhile, appointed Chief of Staff Im Jong-seok as the head of the inter-Korean summit preparation committee.

“The main task of the preparation committee is to draw up an agreement for the April summit meeting,” Kim Eui-kyeom said. He added that the committee will also take part in high-level talks that will be held in the run up to the summit meeting.

By Choi He-suk (cheesuk@heraldcorp.com)

On matters regarding North Korea, Trump used his first State of the Union address Wednesday to highlight the growing threat posed by North Korea and highlighted the brutal nature of the regime.

“No regime has oppressed its own citizens more totally or brutally than the cruel dictatorship of North Korea,” Trump said.

“North Korea’s reckless pursuit of nuclear missiles could very soon threaten our homeland. We are waging a campaign of maximum pressure to prevent that from ever happening.”

While Trump stayed away from taunts directed at North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, the US leader made it clear that his administration would not back down on the issue.

“Past experience has taught us that complacency and concessions only invite aggression and provocation. I will not repeat the mistakes of the past administrations that got us into this dangerous position,” Trump said.

US President Donald Trump gives his State of the Union address on Wednesday, and Vice President Mike Pence and Speaker of the House of Representatives Paul Ryan clap in the background. Yonhap

Although Trump’s words were milder than those he previously used on North Korea, experts say that his message is clear.

Wednesday’s address “indicates that current policies will be maintained,” said Kim Hyun-wook, a professor at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy.

“(The speech) was toned down, but the fact that Warmbier and human rights issues were mentioned reflects negative views on North Korea,” said Kim.

In the address, Trump detailed the detainment and eventual death of American university student Otto Warmbier, and the ordeals of North Korean defector Ji Seong-ho who escaped from the North in 1996. During his time in the North, Ji was involved in an accident that resulted in amputations, and was tortured by the authorities.

Describing Ji’s story as a “testament to the yearning in every human soul to live in freedom,” Trump said that the US was founded on the values of freedom, and that the US has defended such values throughout its history.

Kim added that the tone of the speech was similar to that of Trump’s address to the South Korean National Assembly in November. At the time, Trump highlighted North Korea’s human rights violations, describing the country as “a hell that no person deserves.”

Others observers interpreted Trump’s address as a “grave message.”

“The message is that (the North Korean) regime is not one that can co-exist with the values the US has defended since the country’s foundation,” said Cha Du-hyeogn, a visiting research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies.

He added that Trump’s descriptions of North Korea’s human rights violations before stressing the value the US places on freedom is a clear message.

“This is very serious (message). This implies that US-North Korea dialogue, denuclearization talks will be difficult and should not be hoped for.”

Such assessment bodes ill for Seoul’s hopes for the current inter-Korean talks to lead to a US-Pyongyang dialogue.

President Moon Jae-in and his aides have referred to North Korea’s participation in the PyeongChang Olympics as a “primer for peace,” and as laying the groundwork for US-North Korea dialogue.

Trump administration officials, for their part, have shown no signs that they consider such an outcome possible.

A White House official was recently quoted as saying that related developments were a “charade,” while top US officials have repeatedly stated dialogue is only possible if Pyongyang shows credible evidence of being ready to discuss denuclearization.

According to Konyang University professor emeritus Kim Tae-woo, former head of the Korea Institute for National Unification, while a number of possibilities exist for North Korea after the PyeongChang Games, one that facilitates Washington-Pyongyang talks is unlikely.

“One possibility is that North Korea abandons its nuclear program but that is unlikely. Another is that North Korea stays on the same path,” Kim said.

“Third is that North Korea embarks on even more provocations, which would enrage Washington and lead to a bigger standoff.”

By He-suk Choi and Jun-suk Yeo

(Korea Herald)