The meeting between President Moon Jae-in and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is scheduled for April 27. Kim’s meeting with US President Donald Trump is set for May.

With the critical meetings looming closer, Seoul’s inter-Korean summit preparation committee convenes for the fourth time Thursday, when the two Koreas are set to hold a working-level meeting for the summit.

President Moon Jae-in and US President Donald Trump. Yonhap

According to Cheong Wa Dae, Seoul has been in close communication with Washington with regards to the two summits.

In seeking improved inter-Korean ties and a resolution to the North Korean nuclear issue, Seoul has taken on the role of mediator between Pyongyang and Washington.

“The bigger issue at hand is North Korea-US (talks). As the North Korean and US leaders will discuss the core issues of denuclearization and (the North Korean regime’s) guarantee of safety, (the matter) is different from the Sept. 19 Declaration,” a high-level Cheong Wa Dae official said on the condition of anonymity. The Sept. 19 Declaration refers to North Korea agreeing to give up nuclear armament programs during the six-party talks in 2005.

“(Seoul) is exchanging information with the US, and we are sharing our experience and information necessary for North Korea-US dialogue.”

The official also revealed that Seoul is in talks with Beijing and Tokyo to arrange a trilateral summit, and that the results of the inter-Korean summit would be the “core agenda” of the three-way meeting.

Regarding the agenda of the inter-Korean summit, South Korea’s Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha said that the consensus in Seoul is that a flexible approach is needed to enable Moon and Kim to have a “candid and inclusive” dialogue. S

She said that denuclearization, inter-Korean relations and establishing peace will be the main agenda items of the summit.

On the subject of North Korea’s human rights violations, Kang hinted that the matter is unlikely to be discussed at the summit.

“Dialogue must follow the agenda the two sides agreed on, so including the matter in inter-Korean talks will require more preparations by the government,” Kang said at a press conference Wednesday.

Kang, however, emphasized that Seoul has a “firm stance” on North Korea’s human rights situation, and that the government is dedicated to working with the international community to improve conditions in the North.
North Korea, meanwhile, is engaging South Korea and the US in so-called 1.5-track meetings, while reaching out to its traditional allies.

Last month, Kim made his first overseas trip as the leader of North Korea, meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. He has also dispatched his top diplomats on a series of overseas missions in recent weeks.

North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho on Tuesday met with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, on his way to attend a conference of the Non-Aligned Movement in Azerbaijan. From there, Ri will head to Moscow.

Ri’s meeting with Wang came less than three weeks after his meeting with Swedish Foreign Minister Margot Wallstrom. In addition, Choe Kang-il, deputy director-general for North American affairs at North Korea’s Foreign Ministry, was dispatched last month to Finland, where he met with South Korean and US representatives.

According to Chinese media reports, Ri and Wang discussed Beijing-Pyongyang relations and matters concerning denuclearization.

Following the meeting, the state-run China Central Television reported that Wang informed Ri that the leaders of the two countries had reached a consensus on denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula at their earlier meeting.

Xi and Kim met in Beijing on March 26. According to North Korea, Xi had invited Kim on an unofficial visit, following a request from Pyongyang.

The broadcaster also reported that Wang conveyed China’s support for the inter-Korean and US-North Korea summits, and praised Pyongyang’s efforts at easing tensions on the peninsula.

The broadcaster also said that Ri called for strategic communication between the two countries regarding the Korean Peninsula.

The sudden flurry of diplomatic activities by North Korea has sparked speculations of a Moscow-Pyongyang summit. Moscow, however, has denied that such a meeting is imminent,

It has also been rumored that Ri is set to visit South Korea soon after his return from Moscow. Seoul’s presidential office declined to comment on the matter.

By Choi He-suk (cheesuk@heraldcorp.com)

Moon began his final day in the UAE with a visit to the Korean military unit, Akh. The unit has been stationed in the UAE since January 2011, tasked with aiding the training of UAE soldiers and protecting Koreans in the country in case of a military conflict.

“The Akh unit is the pride of Korea’s armed forces, and the symbol of cooperation between Korea and the UAE,” Moon said, adding that the unit was instrumental in the two countries forming a relationship of special strategic partners.

President Moon Jae-in greets soldiers of the Akh unit in Abu Dhabi of the United Arab Emirates on Tuesday. (Yonhap)

Moon added that the unit plays a critical role in building a strong military, and Korea gaining support from the international community. Moon said that the unit’s deployment marked the first time Korea sent troops to a country with ongoing military conflict, setting a “new model of defense cooperation.”

Following the visit to the unit, Moon met with Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, prime minister of the UAE and ruler of Dubai. Moon also attended a Korea-UAE business forum in Dubai before his scheduled departure for Seoul.

On Sunday, Moon met with Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Mohammed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan and agreed to raise bilateral relations to that of special strategic partners. As part of the agreement, the two sides plan to boost cooperation in a wide range of areas from defense and diplomacy to energy and construction.

In a meeting with Koreans based in the UAE on Sunday, Moon took the opportunity to emphasize the strength of bilateral relations, downplaying recent reports about a possible discord.

After it was revealed that Moon’s chief of staff Im Jong-seok visited the UAE as a special envoy in December last year, speculations rose that tension was rising between the two countries over agreements reached under previous administrations.

Moon’s trip has also served to broaden the involvement of Korean corporations in the UAE’s state projects.

Cheong Wa Dae spokesman Kim Eui-kyeom revealed Tuesday that the UAE has drawn up plans for close cooperation with Korean companies including petroleum- and gas-related projects amounting to some $25 billion.

According to Kim, the plans were revealed during Moon’s meeting with Khaldoon Al Mubarak, chairman of the Executive Affairs Authority of Abu Dhabi, on Sunday.

Under the plans, Korea and the UAE will seek cooperation in projects concerning fossil fuels, renewable energy, nuclear power, and agriculture.

According to Cheong Wa Dae, the UAE has also offered its support to Korean entities’ bid to enter Saudi Arabia’s nuclear power market.

Seoul’s presidential office said that the UAE has informed Saudi authorities about the quality of the work carried out on the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant, and that Korea is an ideal technology partner in relevant projects.

By Choi He-suk (cheesuk@heraldcorp.com)

John Mearsheimer, a professor at the University of Chicago, said there is a chance that the Trump-Kim summit may not materialize, or if the talks fail, the two counties could return to the level of animosity of last year.

“It’s not clear whether they will meet … there is hardly any preparations for the meeting and there is a good chance they won’t meet,” Mearsheimer said during a lecture hosted by the Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies on Wednesday.

“The great danger there is that if the summit happens between Kim Jong-un and Trump and it fails, then you could end up in a situation where relations between the US and North Korea are worse after the failed summit than they have been over the past years.”

(Herald DB)

Tension on the Korean Peninsula had escalated last year, with Trump and Kim exchanging war-like rhetoric with each other. Trump threatened to attack North Korea with “fire and fury,” prompting Kim to call Trump a “mentally deranged dotard.”

The bellicose mood shifted this year when Kim made a diplomatic overture by inviting South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in and Trump for summits. Kim even expressed willingness to bring denuclearization to the negotiation table.

But Mearsheimer said there are no incentives for the nuclear-armed North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons, saying the North is in a “completely different” situation from countries that abandoned their nuclear weapons when the Cold War ended in the 1990s.

“I can’t think of a country that needs nuclear weapons more than North Korea because you all know that the US is into a regime change,” the scholar said, referring to previous debates over military strikes on North Korea within the Trump’s administration.

“From their point of view, it will make eminently good sense. We don’t see any evidence that the US, which has the most powerful conventional forces in the world, is giving up their nuclear weapons. So why would you expect North Korea to do so?”

Regarding President Moon’s engagement policy with North Korea, Mearsheimer said it is helpful in reducing inter-Korean tensions for now, but its longer-term implications remain to be seen, as the prospects of the summits with North Korea look bleak.

John Mearsheimer, a professor at the University of Chicago. (Korea Foundation for Advanced Studies­)

“I think it is very smart policy. He did everything possible to tamp down the tension and get the US and North Korea to walk away from the cliff. I think President Moon did the right thing and pushed us in that direction.”

“How it plays out in the long term? It’s very hard to say. It’s not clear if there will be a happy ending to the summit. I think it’s more likely there will be an unhappy ending. … For the time being, I think it is good to walk away from the crisis.”

Mearsheimer has long asserted that the US and China would end up in a “security competition” that could end in major conflicts and that Washington should contain the rise of China by building a “balancing coalition.”

In his perspective, the security landscape surrounding East Asia is much more precarious than during the Cold War, and the likelihood of war between the US and China is higher than between the US and the Soviet Union.

But the scholar predicted such a scenario would not be fulfilled in the foreseeable future, as China wants to avoid conflicts — particularly those with the US and its allies — until it becomes powerful enough to compete with Washington.

“The Chinese are fully aware that provoking the US is not a good idea. … I think the Chinese understand that time is on their side (and) now is not the time to provoke the crisis,” he said.

By Yeo Jun-suk (jasonyeo@heraldcorp.com)

South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in plans to meet Kim on the South’s side of the Panmunjeom truce village as part of the recently reached inter-Korean agreement.

The announcement regarding Trump’s decision was made by Seoul’s National Security Office chief Chung Eui-yong at the White House following his meeting with Trump and his top aides.

“President Trump appreciated the briefing and said he would meet Kim Jong-un by May to achieve permanent denuclearization,” Chung said.

South Korean National Security Office chief Chung Eui-yong talks with US President Donald Trump at the White House on Thursday (US local time). (Yonhap)

Chung had met with Trump, Vice President Mike Pence, as well as Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis and National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster, to explain the results of his meeting with Kim on Monday.

Chung said that he briefed Trump on Kim’s promises, including that he is “committed to denuclearization.” Chung also said that the North Korean leader “expressed his eagerness to meet President Trump as soon as possible.”

Moon welcomed the developments.

“(The process of achieving) A complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula will be on track if a meeting between the two leaders (Kim and Trump) follows the inter-Korean summit,” Moon said.

“The May meeting will be recorded as a historic milestone in achieving peace on the Korean Peninsula.”

Moon also thanked Kim and Trump for their decision, going on to praise the US leader saying that his “leadership will be praised by South and North Koreans, and people of the world who wish for peace.”

(Yonhap)

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe welcomed the developments, but advised caution and said that pressure will remain until visible steps towards denuclearization are made.

Speaking to reporters on Friday, Abe said that he “appreciates this change,“ referring to the North’s apparently willingness to discuss denuclearization with the US.

He added that the development is the result of the international community‘s continuation of high-level pressure.”

According to Cheong Wa Dae spokesman Kim Eui-kyeom, Chung’s meeting with Trump was initially planned for Saturday, Korea time, but was brought forward at the US leader’s request.

At the meeting Chung quoted Kim Jong-un as saying “significant results could be achieved if (I) speak to President Trump in person,” the Cheong Wa Dae spokesman said. According to Kim Eui-kyeom, Trump immediately accepted the invitation to meet, and stressed that he has always emphasized the need for dialogue.

The spokesman also revealed that Chung did not deliver a letter from the North Korean leader, and that there has been no talk of special envoys between Pyongyang and Washington.

Moon, meanwhile, appointed Chief of Staff Im Jong-seok as the head of the inter-Korean summit preparation committee.

“The main task of the preparation committee is to draw up an agreement for the April summit meeting,” Kim Eui-kyeom said. He added that the committee will also take part in high-level talks that will be held in the run up to the summit meeting.

By Choi He-suk (cheesuk@heraldcorp.com)

Presiding over a debate last month, Moon emphasized the need to take a “revolutionary approach” to lifting regulations, calling for “bold ways that have never been tried until now.”

Critics say, however, his administration’s efforts toward deregulation have been limited to selected new industries it plans to nurture to propel what is described as innovation-driven growth.

Even such narrow endeavors have so far brought no substantial outcome, increasing skepticism about the will and ability of the Moon administration to carry the reforms through.

President Moon Jae-in (center). (Yonhap)

Work has stalled on introducing a regulatory sandbox, which allows businesses to test innovative products and services in the real market without being hampered by regulations.

Implementing the scheme to promote new industries was included in the 100 key policy agenda unveiled shortly after the Moon administration was launched in May.

Over the past months, no concrete step has been taken toward putting in practice the regulatory sandbox.

Government policymakers and ruling party lawmakers have yet to submit bills needed to introduce it to the parliament.

What has held back the legislation process seems to be difficulties in drawing up bills different from the proposal by the previous conservative administration to set up regulation-free zones around the country. Then in the opposition, the liberal Democratic Party of Korea had vehemently opposed the zones, arguing it would only benefit large corporations.

An official at the Ministry of Strategy and Finance, who had been involved in drafting the bill on establishing regulation-free zones, cautioned against the inefficiency caused by the preoccupation with destroying the legacies of the previous government.

“Policies pursued under the previous administration need to be carried forward, if they are in the right direction,” he said, requesting not to be named.

Many economists and corporate officials say the Moon administration needs to take a more practical and flexible stance on deregulation.

In a forum hosted by the National Economic Advisory Council last week, Park Byung-won, head of the Korea Employers Federation, called for eradicating regulatory restrictions on traditional industries as well, which he said could create more jobs more quickly.

He noted regulatory reforms were required to ensure that local firms can compete internationally.

Except for some high-tech sectors such as semiconductors, Korea’s manufacturing industries have been losing steam in recent years. Factories in the country ran at 71.9 percent on average of full capacity last year, the lowest level since 1998 in the aftermath of a devastating foreign exchange crisis.

Economists say innovation-propelled existing industries rather than new industries have been taking the lead in boosting economic vitality in Germany and Japan.

Lifting regulations on the service sector is all the more necessary as service industries tend to be more instrumental in increasing employment.

According to data from the Bank of Korea, the country saw its elasticity of employment — the number of jobs added when a nation’s gross domestic product grows 1 percent — drop from 190,000 in 2012 to 121,000 in 2015 and 108,000 in the first three quarters of 2017.

BOK analysts attributed the decline mainly to a slump in the service industries, which have a higher elasticity of employment than manufacturing and construction.

A set of measures aimed at enhancing growth in the service industries, including increased investment in research and development, were announced at a meeting of economy-related ministers last week.

The service sector accounted for only 8.6 percent of Korea’s total R&D spending in 2016, with the corresponding figures for Germany and Japan amounting to 13.2 percent in 2013 and 12.4 percent in 2014, respectively.

But the ministers still stopped short of pushing through drastic deregulation.

They decided to scrap a plan to open a foreign-invested for-profit clinic in an economic free zone in Incheon and permit a local general hospital to be built there.

The decision was seen as a response to pressure from civic groups that had argued the plan would undermine the country’s public health care system.

Economists say the Moon administration’s failure to carry out sweeping regulatory reforms could have a worse than usual effect, because it has pursued a set of pro-labor policies putting heavier burdens on companies as part of its income-led growth drive.

In a seminar hosted by the KEF last week, corporate executives and academics called measures that were excessively biased toward labor groups unnecessary curbs on both companies and workers.

Kim Kang-sik, a professor of business administration at Korea Aerospace University, said this year’s sharp increase in the minimum wage was “the most unnecessary regulation” in the job market, noting the move is pushing firms to cut their payrolls to cope with rising labor costs.

To the embarrassment of the administration that has vowed to put top priority on creating more jobs, recent data from the Labor Ministry showed the number of new applicants for unemployment benefits in the country reached a record high of 152,000 in January, up 32.2 percent from a year earlier.

By Kyung-ho  Kim,

(Korea Herald)

South Korean President Moon Jae-in (left, front row), first lady Kim Jung-sook, North Korean ceremonial head of state Kim Yong-nam (second from right, back row) and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un`s sister Kim Yo-jong (right, back row) attend the opening ceremony of the 2018 PyeongChang Olympics in PyeongChang, Gangwon Province, Friday. (Yonhap)

The three countries — the key players in issues surrounding the North Korean nuclear issue –are represented by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, US Vice President Mike Pence and China’s Politburo Standing Committee member Han Zheng. Russia, the other party in the six-party talks on denuclearization, is absent from the games due to doping allegations.

North Korea was represented by its nominal head of state Kim Yong-nam, who heads Pyongyang’s high-level delegation.

The North Korean delegation, which arrived here Friday, also includes Kim Yo-jong, sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.

“Even as we are here together, many countries around the world have thorny issues to sort out between them. Korea is no exception. Had it not been for the PyeongChang Olympics, some of us might not have had (the) chance to be together in the same room,” Moon said.

Moon went on to cite the example of the 1991 World Table Tennis Championships, where the two Koreas fielded a joint team. He said that the joint women’s ice hockey team at the Winter Games is a seed of hope.

Citing a poem that says “a snowman starts with a snowball,” Moon said that the ice hockey players “are now holding a small snowball in their hands.”

“Together, we should start rolling the small snowball carefully with our hands. Now, if we put our hearts and minds together, it will continue to grow larger and larger and turn into a snowman of peace.”

While the South Korean leader talked of peace on the Korean Peninsula, Pence’s actions at the reception indicated that US-North Korea dialogue — considered an essential step in the denuclearization of the North — is unlikely.

Despite much speculation over the possibility of Pence meeting with the North Korean delegation, no such meeting came about.

US Vice President Mike Pence, second from bottom right, sits between second lady Karen Pence, third from from bottom left, and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at the opening ceremony of the 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea, Friday, Feb. 9, 2018. Seated behind Pence are Kim Yong-nam, third from top right, president of the Presidium of North Korean Parliament, and Kim Yo-jong, second from top right, sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. (Yonhap-AP)

Pence, along with Abe, arrived at the reception late, avoiding Moon’s meet-and-greet session where the North’s chief delegate was present. The US vice president did not attend the main event of the reception, where he would have been given a seat at the head table along with Kim Yong-nam and Abe.

Pence left shortly after greeting Moon, while Abe stayed.

Cheong Wa Dae said later that Pence had informed Seoul in advance that he would not attend the entire event in order to meet with US athletes.

According to pool reports, Pence did however take the time to greet and shake hands with other leaders present, but did not acknowledge Kim Yong-nam

As for the North Korean delegation, the 23-member group arrived in the South by private jet at 1:46 p.m. at the Incheon Airport.

From there, the delegation moved directly to PyeongChang in Gangwon Province to attend the reception and Olympic opening ceremony. The delegation, or a combination of its members, will also meet with Moon on Saturday.

While the delegation is led by Kim Yong-nam, experts are focusing on Kim Yo-jong. With her direct link to Kim Jong-un, she is expected to play a key role in future inter-Korean relations.

Jeong Se-hyun, who served as the South’s minister of unification for the liberal Roh Moo-hyun administration, said in an interview with a local radio station that Kim Jong-un has sent his sister to express willingness to revive inter-Korean talks, which could pave the way for Washington-Pyongyang dialogue.

But others are skeptical that Kim Yo-jong’s presence in South Korea will lead to any noteworthy breakthrough in the current situation surrounding North Korea, with Pyongyang’s unwillingness to give up its nuclear development program.

“President Moon has tied the issue of bringing denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula to an improvement in inter-Korean ties, but North Korea is not interested in denuclearization at the moment,” said research fellow Woo Jung-yeop of the Sejong Institute.

Some experts are voicing concerns that North Korea may be using the Olympic overture to gain more leeway on international sanctions.

Recently, North Korea has often made moves that call for sanctions exemptions, and “sending Choe Hwi to South Korea is part of North Korea’s tactics to widen the scope of its sanctions violations,” a source from a state-run research institute told The Korea Herald on condition of anonymity.

Choe is subject to UN sanctions, including a travel ban, which was lifted for the duration of the visit to the South.

By He-suk Choi and Min-kyung Jung

(Korea Herald)