Among key major powers, relations between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and Russia are the least developed — albeit full of potential. Leaders from both sides have repeatedly pledged to bring their relations to a new level. But they remain at best rhetorical. Bluntly speaking, their promises contained in the all-encompassing action plans from 2005-15 were somewhat hollow, judging from the records of implementation. Currently, the 11-member eminent persons group, which has been tasked to draw up the vision of future ASEAN-Russia relations, is going for a five-year timeframe. Both sides will celebrate the 20th anniversary of their diplomatic relations in Sochi on May 19-20.
The overall ASEAN ties with the U.S., China, Japan and India have been stronger and healthier because their leaders pushed hard and boosted mutual cooperation in bringing about tangible outcomes. It was no fluke. In the past few years, they have personally engaged with the ASEAN leaders to move forward their friendship. Just last week, U.S. President Barack Obama hosted a special summit in California and further deepened cooperation with ASEAN. As a reward, the ASEAN leaders agreed to sign up to the Sunnylands Declaration containing 17 principles — a good testimony of new confidence of shared visions and commitments between the U.S. and the association.
In a similar vein, both Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang have traveled throughout the region with specific joint programs and activities for ASEAN and individual members. Their far-reaching infrastructural projects and region-wide connectivity are limited in number so far. These days, China moves quickly to implement whatever it has committed at a speed that ASEAN has to catch up. When ASEAN-China leaders meet again for the 19th time in early September in Vientiane, Laos to commemorate their 25th anniversary, there will be more surprises on the offing.
In the case of Japan, under the leadership of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, ASEAN-Japan ties have been on bullet train-like speeds. Their cooperation was strengthened widely, reflecting Tokyo’s priority and the grouping’s growing strategic significance. Abe traveled and consulted with the ASEAN leaders as never before. The ASEAN leaders responded in kind, adding new dimension to their otherwise heavily economic-oriented agenda.
Even India has pumped up its multifaceted cooperation with ASEAN. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants more ASEAN investment and trade. Of late, New Delhi is softer and more willing to give and take in the negotiation of a Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which is the ASEAN-led regional free trade framework. Modi is also pushing the bureaucrats and private sectors to “Act East” rather than just “Look East” as advocated by the previous government.
Both Australia and New Zealand have impressive records in dealing with ASEAN. They are medium-size powers, but with dynamic cooperative programs. They enjoy working with ASEAN at all levels. New Zealand was given strategic partnership status at the same time as the U.S. last November. Among the core dialogue partners, Russia is still not a strategic partner of ASEAN.
Looking ahead to the upcoming Sochi summit, only Russian President Vladimir Putin has personally fired up the tepid relations. Putin has already written a letter of invitation to the ASEAN leaders to come to Sochi. This time Putin wants to make sure the 10 leaders are there so he can exchange views with them for the first time. So far, Putin, even on his third-term presidency, has never met with all ASEAN leaders or attended any ASEAN-led mechanisms.
When Dmitry Medvedev served as the Russian president from 2008-10, he attended a special summit with ASEAN leaders in Hanoi, Vietnam in 2010.
In 2005, Putin was a guest of the ASEAN chair, Malaysia, and was invited to attend the opening session of the inaugural East Asia Summit in Kuala Lumpur. He made a strong presence and was enthusiastic to join the EAS as a founding member, which received support from the chair and some ASEAN members. However, there was no consensus. Since then Putin’s interest in ASEAN has worn thin. When he hosted the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders meeting in Vladivostok back in 2012, ASEAN expected him to attend the EAS in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. He did not show up.
Only Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was present at most of the meetings while Medvedev, as prime minister, attended the past two EAS in Myanmar and Malaysia respectively. In contrast, Obama missed the EAS in Brunei in 2013 due to the American government shutdown. Through his personal endeavors, Obama has met all ASEAN leaders seven times, including at the just-concluded Sunnylands summit. Furthermore, he has traveled to the region on seven separate occasions during his tenure. He is scheduled to visit Vietnam in May and the possibility is high that the itinerary will include Myanmar — the country his administration often cites as a diplomatic achievement in this part of the world. He also has confirmed attendance at the EAS in Vientiane in September.
After the annexation of Crimea and sanctions imposed by the West, Russia has refocused on the region for alternative sources of import and export markets. Vietnam was the first ASEAN member to sign the Eurasian Union free trade agreement. Thailand could be next. In other words, Russia has its own pivot to Asia, in particular ASEAN. Putin dispatched Medvedev to Vietnam and Thailand early last year and later on to Cambodia. Both Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia were old friends, not to mention Myanmar.
Obviously, sensing the slowdown of Thai relations with the U.S. after the coup and its eagerness to strengthen old ties and find new friends, Russia is moving full throttle to deepen the 120-year old friendship with Thailand. Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Pravit Wongsuwan is heading a huge team to Moscow from Feb. 23-26, accompanied by Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jaktusripitak. Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha is planning an official visit to Russia back to back with the Sochi summit in May.
Therefore, if Russia is to be taken seriously by ASEAN, first of all Putin needs to get to know the ASEAN leaders personally, otherwise it would be hard to add substance to their relationships. After all, like Putin, most ASEAN leaders are in power for the long haul, with the exception of Thailand. Putin can easily befriend the ASEAN leaders if he really wants to. Moreover, Russia has yet to set up a mission dedicated to the ASEAN Secretariat, like all other dialogue partners have done, before its status is upgraded to a strategic partnership. Failing to do so, the Sochi summit will merely be just another photo opportunity and symbolic event.
Kavi Chongkittavorn
Kavi Chongkittavorn is a senior fellow at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies, Chulalongkorn University and assistant group editor of Nation Media Group in Thailand. — Ed.
(The Nation/Asia News Network)
