As inter-Korea relations plunge deeper into a standoff, with the North threatening additional nuclear and long-range missile tests, some Seoul experts have begun expressing concerns over the lack of an exit strategy to alleviate tension in the peninsula.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, in defiance of recently-passed U.N. sanctions, claimed Tuesday that it has the capacity for a nuclear strike and warned of an “all-out“ attack against South Korea and the U.S. for carrying out an annual joint military drill.
President Park Geun-hye has responded by warning that North Korea’s refusal to change will lead to its “self-destruction.”
“The government’s responsibility is to prevent the situation in the Korean Peninsula from worsening, which it is failing to do,” said Yang Moo-jin, a professor of the University of North Korean Studies.
“We (South Korea) will need to participate in the international sanctions as punitive action against the North, but (we) must not sever the line of communication (with the North),” he said.
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| The South Korean Coast Guard and Navy conduct a simulation exercise to intercept a North Korea-bound vessel off the coast of Busan on Wednesday. Yonhap |
The international society has been mounting pressure on the communist country in light of its Jan. 6 nuclear test and Feb. 7 long-range rocket launch, which violated the previous U.N. resolutions against development of Pyongyang’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
The Park administration has made it clear that denuclearization of the North should predate any negotiations.
Koh Yoo-hwan, a North Korean studies professor at Dongguk University, pointed out that the U.S. and China have been more open toward the talks compared to South Korea.
He also said that there is a distinct difference between South Korea and its neighboring countries on how they each approach the current situation.
“We (Seoul) are assuming that the North has crossed some sort of line in terms of tactical provocation and is charging toward the end with all possible options, but China and Russia are not,” he said.
Russian Ambassador to South Korea Alexander Timonin told local media that his country was ready to cooperate for a diplomatic solution to any issues related to the Korean Peninsula. He also raised concerns against the potential nuclear armament of Seoul, which has resurfaced recently in face of Pyongyang’s nuclear threats.
Koh said that the hardline approach makes it harder for the government to seek an actual exit strategy.
“The government right now is vowing to ‘go all the way’ with the sanctions, meaning that they have no exit strategy,” he said.
Cheong Seong-chang, senior research fellow at the local think tank Sejong Institute, warned that if South Korea continues its hawkish approach toward the North, it may be forced to take a backseat in future talks.
“Between the U.N. sanctions and Seoul government’s unilateral measures, it is now time to discuss denuclearization of the peninsula by resuming six-party talks,” he suggested. “If not, the North will attempt to hold talks just with Washington, excluding Seoul from the process.”
The U.S. has said that the potential deployment of its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system here — which the allies said was to provide protection against Pyongyang’s missile attacks — is unnecessary if the North gives up its nuclear program.
Observers said that in lieu of the tough stance of the government, it needs to take a two-way strategy of using both force and talks.
Koh of Dongguk University pointed out that while the government is determined in getting the North to abandon its nuclear program via sanctions, it has virtually no options to take if it does not work except for military actions.
Scholars here have raised the possibility that Pyongyang may carry out further provocations before the convention of its ruling Workers’ Party in May. Sejong Institute researcher Hong Hyun-ik said the North might conduct its forewarned nuclear test around April 15, birthday of the North Korea’s late founder Kim Il-sung.
Professor Yang stressed the importance of retaining communication between the Koreas, China and the U.S, to find closure to the current situation.
“Humanitarian aid can only get things done so far. The related parties should keep communicating informally to understand what the others want,” he said.
By Yoon Min-sik (minsikyoon@heraldcorp.com)
