More and more securities firms are raising the possibility that the Bank of Korea’s Monetary Policy Committee will lower the benchmark interest rate in March after signaling a cut in its upcoming gathering this week. A minority even predicts a monetary easing — from the current 1.5 percent to 1.25 percent per annum — on Feb. 16.
Those forecasting the BOK’s cut highlight the negative factors such as Japan’s below-zero rate policy and China’s noteworthy slowdown. They domestically cite the weaker-than-expected private consumption and sagging exports.
Some say that the securities industry’s titling toward a rate cut is psychological pressure for the central bank, ahead of the April 13 general election, with the government and the ruling party eager for stimulus drives.
However, the seven rate-setters of the BOK committee are presumed to be well acquainted with potential risks from a lowering.
After this week’s meeting, the next rate setting is slated for March 10. The two gatherings in Korea precede the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, set to convene March 15-16.
Local and foreign analysts’ betting on Korea’s cut is growing after the U.S. has recently expressed a cautious stance toward another rate hike following its beginning of monetary tightening in December.
But the untouched point is that Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen has reiterated her confidence in the U.S. economic recovery. Though she has not ruled out a pace adjustment, she clarified the hawkish monetary stance would not be scrapped during her speech to the U.S. Congress.
Korea has undergone a long net-selling spree by foreign stock investors and the rapidly dropping value of its currency against the dollar after the FOMC’s rate hike on Dec. 16, 2015.
Since November, foreigners net sold equities worth 8.4 trillion won ($7 billion) on the nation’s main bourse. The Korean won has depreciated by about 5 percent versus the dollar over the past three months.
These records show that even if the U.S. delays a further hike, a cut in Korea would certainly accelerate foreign stakeholders’ massive offloading. An easing to 1.25 percent means the disparity with the U.S. rate would be less than 1 percentage point, which has climbed to 0.25-0.5 percent, from the former zero-0.25 percent.
With rash signaling for a cut in the BOK’s February meeting, the won-denominated assets will shortly lose their investment attraction. The won is different from the Japanese yen, one of the four reserve currencies, which remains strong despite the Bank of Japan’s alleged policy failure.
While Korea’s benchmark rate was 2.5 percent in July 2014, monetary policymakers eased the rate by 100 basis points to slide to the record-low of 1.5 percent in June 2015. This was enough to reinvigorate the consumer and business sentiment.
As BOK Gov. Lee Ju-yeol admitted in January that the efficacy of rate cuts lags behind that of past years, further lowering could have little effect on the economy in stimulus aspects. It could just expand side effects like aggravating household debt.
Lee and his six colleagues should seriously consider departing from the dovish stance. If the FOMC keeps its rate unchanged in March, continued freezing at 1.5 percent could be tolerable. But if the U.S. rate is raised following the BOK’s freeze, more critical shocks to Korea would be inevitable, at least until the BOK’s April rate setting.
So preemptive monetary policies are significant in terms of hedging risks and impacting the market. The central bank should be in a hurry to embark on interest rate normalization, glossing over some brokerages’ pressure for a cut or freeze.
